Redistricting results illustrate slight shift in Henrico vote from November to April

Henrico voters overwhelmingly voted in favor of Virginia’s proposed congressional redistricting amendment, with nearly 64% of the more than 128,000 people who cast ballots in the county voting “yes.”

Henrico’s margin of support for the proposal – more than 35,000 votes – played a critical role in its statewide passage April 21 by less than 89,000 votes. The outcome means that, at least for now, the boundaries of Virginia’s 11 congressional districts will shift in ways that likely will give Democrats control of 10 of them, rather than the 6 they control currently.

Locally, nearly 83% of Richmond voters and more than 53% of Chesterfield County voters were in favor of the amendment, though Hanover County voters voted against it by a 67% to 33% margin. The change would move Henrico's western half from the eastern-heavy First District to the new-look western-heavy Fifth, while Eastern Henrico would remain in the Fourth District (see images below).

The proposal has been the source of a contentious statewide debate since Democratic lawmakers first announced plans to introduce it last fall as a way to push back on similar gerrymandering efforts in Texas, North Carolina, Missouri and other Republican-controlled states. Those states acted in an attempt to add more Republican seats in Congress ahead of this year’s midterm elections, which could have major implications for the Trump administration.

Virginia Democrats have argued that their redistricting plans are simply a temporary response to the actions of the Republican-led states and a way to ensure a level playing field in Congress, but state Republicans have blasted the efforts as unfair and wrong.

The results of the special election don’t yet guarantee that the new districts will take shape, since the Supreme Court of Virginia intends to review the process and could rule that it was illegal.

Spanberger enjoyed more support than did redistricting proposal

Although the redistricting proposal received strong support from Henrico voters, its margin of victory in the county was less than that enjoyed last November by Democratic Gov. Abigail Spanberger, who won more than 69% of the Henrico vote against Republican Winsome Earle-Sears, who received about 30%.

That difference could be attributable in part to the fact that Spanberger has a home in Henrico and that Earle-Sears was not viewed as a strong candidate by some Republicans, or it could illustrate that the redistricting issue was not decided purely along party lines.

In November, Spanberger won all but five of Henrico’s 90 precincts, and only one of those five (Mooreland) was in the West End.

But those five and seven other county precincts (including six in the West End) voted against the redistricting amendment in this special election, and a total of 12 precincts witnessed a significant shift between the two elections (going from significant support for Spanberger to narrow support for, or opposition to, the redistricting plan; narrow support for Spanberger to narrow or significant opposition to redistricting; or narrow support for Earle-Sears to significant opposition to redistricting):

• In addition to the Mooreland precinct, four adjacent or nearby precincts in the Tuckahoe District (generally along the River Road corridor) that voted for Spanberger – Derbyshire, Lakewood, Maybeury and Tuckahoe – voted against the redistricting proposal.

• Four other West End precincts that strongly supported Spanberger in November – Hungary Creek, Staples Mill, Nuckols Farm and Gayton – more narrowly supported the amendment, while Brookland District precincts Glen Allen and Hunton (both of which supported Spanberger in November) opposed it.

• Three precincts in which Spanberger enjoyed wins of at least 13% in November – Glen Allen, Lakewood and Maybeury – voted against the redistricting proposal by narrow margins. In the Glen Allen and Lakewood precincts, the number of people who voted for Earle-Sears in November and against the redistricting proposal this spring was nearly identical; in those districts and a number of others that saw shifts, they seemed to occur because Spanberger voters did not vote in the redistricting election.

In the Glen Allen precinct, for example, 1,385 people voted for Earle-Sears and 1,391 voted against the redistricting plan. But Spanberger earned 1,801 votes there in November, while only 1,379 voted “yes” on redistricting.

The only meaningful changes in Eastern Henrico came in the Varina District, where the Whitlocks precinct flipped from narrow support for Spanberger (51%) to strong opposition to the amendment (54%) and the Sandston precinct, which narrowly went for Republican Winsome Earle Sears in November (50%) but more strongly voted against the proposed amendment (56%).

Just more than 149,000 people cast ballots in Henrico in the November gubernatorial election, while just more than 128,000 voted in the redistricting special election.