For Henrico voters in the country’s ‘median district,’ decision in Wittman-Taylor race may be shaped by rising costs and rule of law

More than 202,000 people already have cast their votes in Virginia’s First Congressional District – the highest total among the state's 11 such districts – in what likely will be one of the country’s most competitive races and what surely will be one of its most watched.

The district, which spans areas of Western Henrico and Chesterfield through Virginia’s Northern Neck, was labeled as the country’s “median district” – split almost evenly between red and blue voters – by the Center of Politics at the University of Virginia. Recent polls have placed Democratic challenger Shannon Taylor and Republican incumbent Rob Wittman nearly neck-and-neck.

So, what do some the nation’s “median voters” say can sway them one way or the other come Tuesday?

"At this point: I'll be honest: I don't think I'm voting for anybody. God will have to work a miracle for me to change my mind. I'm very disappointed in what has happened with everybody."
– Alvina Manuel, Glen Allen

Pain at the pump could spur a change

In interviews with the Citizen throughout the district and at early voting locations, Henrico voters shared a variety of issues that are guiding their decisions.

For seniors like Alvina Manuel, a retired nurse who resides in the suburbs of Glen Allen, higher costs for groceries, gas, and medication may be the deciding factor in this race.

“I’m not happy with the way that seniors have been treated. It’s a problem for us with groceries, medication. It’s devastating to me,” Manuel told the Citizen. “I can’t afford it. Most seniors can’t. We’re having a really hard time.”

Manuel said that high prices have become more of an issue over the past month or so. While still undecided, she said that she credits the problem to President Donald Trump, who has endorsed Wittman.

Glen Allen has one of the only two precincts in Western Henrico that slightly leaned toward Trump in the 2024 election. Henrico, along with Chesterfield, comprise almost half of the population of the predominantly white, middle- and upper-middle-class First District.

"I'm going to be honest, my biggest goal this year was to make sure I was registered to vote. So that was the only thing I was really concerned about."
– Kristen Gardner, Henrico

A Henrico resident named Rita, who grew up in the Northern Neck and has known Wittman for decades, said she was angered by Taylor’s attacks against Wittman’s finances and believed that cost fluctuations were not the fault of Wittman or the Trump administration. Not only did Rita vote for Wittman, she donated money to his campaign – the first time she has ever made a political donation – saying that Taylor’s accusations were what drove her to donate.

“They’re just playing to people that are against people getting rich. She’s flat out lying,” Rita said. “And the high prices, you know, I feel bad for families when they go to the grocery store and can’t do what I do and go without. That is a big issue. But [Taylor] is not going to do any better than he can do.”

Will Chambers, an attorney who lives in the Tuckahoe neighborhood and voted for Taylor, said that he believes Wittman, whose net worth has grown to about $5 million since he took office in 2007, is in stark contrast to the average resident in the First District.

“I think Wittman loves to try and downplay the amount of wealth that he has when it’s clear that he has a lot more than a lot of folks in the district that he seeks to represent,” Chambers said. 

"I know Rob Wittman. I've known him for 40 years.
He's an honest, hardworking man.
He is not there for himself."
– Rita, Henrico

Taylor’s campaign has accused Wittman of profiting off of stock trading that involved insider information, which Wittman has denied as “100% lies,” saying he instead received inheritance money when his parents died.

“My parents passed away, my in-laws passed away between 2010 and 2014, and you can look and see when those dollars came in,” Wittman said in an interview with the Citizen. 

Wittman also said he has worked in Congress to lower gas prices by expanding domestic capacity for fuel production and reducing reliance on foreign nations.

“While I actually put solutions out there, all my opponent has done is attack,” he said.

"I know I'm going to vote for Shannon Taylor. It's almost a reaction to the attack ads. They're trying to make it like she did all of these bad things and it just seems like their weird scare tactics."
– Connie, Henrico

Voters want a strong enforcer of the law

Other voters said they were disappointed with Taylor’s prosecution record as Henrico’s Commonwealth’s Attorney, particularly the three-year sentence that was handed to former Henrico nurse Erin Strotman in June after being convicted of abusing newborns at a Henrico hospital. 

Amber, a Henrico resident who considers herself an independent and is not registered with either party, said she likely would vote for Wittman on Tuesday because of that case. Amber worked alongside Strotman at the Henrico Doctors’ Hospital in the past, making the issue more personal for her.

“I’m not real pleased with the prosecutor, Taylor, who kind of let her off very easy. Because I was there firsthand. So I’m for basically anybody but Taylor,” she said. “That fact that [Strotman] only got three years doesn’t even come close to what she should’ve gotten. She’s very dangerous.”

"I was concerned about Wittman's willingness to stand up to Trump and the MAGA wing of the Republican Party. His voting record shows just how consistently he's aligned with the administration, and I wasn't confident he'd exercise independent judgement when it really mattered."
– LeAnne Sporn, Henrico

Taylor has said that while she was not happy with the lighter sentence, the complexities of the case and the evidence, along with the support of the victims’ families, pushed her to accept the negotiated plea deal.

Henrico resident Bob Taylor, who voted for Wittman, said he also was disappointed with Taylor’s record as Henrico Commonwealth’s Attorney.

“She’s too liberal on punishment for crime,” he said. “I know some police officers that have worked with her that would not support her. And I know a couple instances where she didn’t prosecute like she should have for crimes.”

Taylor has touted Henrico’s 86% dip in homicides in 2025 as evidence for her efficiency as a prosecutor.

“For the last almost 15 years, I’ve worked a long line with law enforcement to put violent criminals, sexual predators, and human traffickers behind bars,” Taylor said when speaking to the Citizen. “That is the grave distinction between myself and Rob Wittman. He will not stand up to protect the people in the First [District].”

"I've supported [Wittman] in the past. I think [Taylor] is making up a lot of stuff about him that's not true."
– Bob Taylor, Henrico

ICE concerns for some voters

But when it came to Wittman, some voters brought up frustrations about the congressman’s support of the Trump administration and Trump policies concerning U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement.

“I can’t vote for Wittman because of his affiliation with the federal policies, particularly ICE,” said a Glen Allen resident named Alison. “I’m very concerned about rule of law and ICE being outside of rule of law. I don’t think it’s a big issue for Taylor, but she’s more lined up with what I would say law and following laws.”

Alison, who is an ESL (English as a second language) teacher for adults, said that federal immigration policies have had a significant impact on the Henrico communities that she teaches, and therefore, her own community.

"We're far away from D.C., so I won't say it's a referendum on Trump. But I think people are tired of conservative governance. At least I am,"
– Will Chambers, Tuckahoe

“Although people might not see it all the time, it’s impacted this community deeply in places of employment, in schools, places that I go. People are less willing to come out,” she said. “They’re very much part of our community. These are not strangers. And at church it’s a huge issue – people who have been going to church for decades and then don’t show up.”

Kristen Gardner, who registered to vote for the first time this year, is still undecided on the race. But her difficulties navigating the visa process with her husband, who lives outside of the United States, pushed her to become a first-time voter.

“I’m going to be honest, my biggest goal this year was to make sure I was registered to vote so that was the only thing I was really concerned about,” Gardner told the Citizen. “Voting, I’ve never really cared about it until it affected me enough to pull me outside of my everyday life. I felt like my vote wouldn’t have made much difference, but apparently it would have.”

"I think overall [Wittman] has been doing a good job of keeping the things we don't want in, out. Turning things much more left is negative for our community."
– Teresa, Henrico

The October surprise: data centers?

Apart from rising costs and political allegiances, what may be an influential factor in the First District race is the relatively new phenomenon in the region: data centers and their growing opposition.

For many Western Henrico voters, what is top-of-mind right now may not be the election, but instead the controversial proposal of building several hyperscale data centers just west of several Henrico neighborhoods in Goochland.

"[Wittman] votes with the Trump administration, and I don't like Trump." – Mike Kennedy, Hanover

But voters across the county are beginning to “wake up” to the long-term consequences and political affiliations of the data center industry, said a Tuckahoe resident named Susan, who voted for Taylor and lives near the border with Goochland.

“I think one of the major drivers in this particular election is the data centers that happened a few weeks ago,” she said. “I think we’re going to really regret that we didn’t say more, do more. It’s something that brought everybody together.”

Neither Taylor’s nor Wittman’s campaigns have focused primarily on the data center issue, although both candidates have spoken out against placing the costs of building and maintaining data centers on residents.

"At this point, it's more just about getting Wittman out. [Taylor] was not the candidate that I wanted, but the main draw to her is that she doesn't support the current administration."
– Jenny, Henrico

But for many in the First District, a loud, oppositional stance against further data center growth in the area could win over some in-between voters.

“I’m very different compared to my community, honestly probably opposite,” said Hanover resident Raeghan Charania, who tends to lean more left. “But I think it’s really funny to see that there’s almost a universal agreement against data centers.”

Citizen Community Vitality Reporter Dina Weinstein contributed to the reporting for this article.