Cost of living continues to increase in Virginia, data shows

Emily Cagle and her husband chose to live in Metro Richmond because it was more affordable than Northern Virginia, where her husband is from.

“I think it’s gotten really absurd,” Cagle said, about the cost of living in Richmond.

Standing outside a Henrico County Kroger, Cagle said she spends“at least double, easily” on groceries, compared to a few years ago.

Now her family is debating whether to move back to Northern Virginia, an area once considered much more expensive than Richmond, because “we’ll be paying the same price either way.”

The Cagles aren't the only Virginians with doubts about financial stability.

Consumer sentiment remains at its third-lowest point since Roanoke College began measuring Virginia’s economic outlook in 2011. Although there was a slight uptick in sentiment in August, there were concerns about the potential inflationary effects of tariffs, according to the college. A new report has not been released since the government shut down Oct. 1.

Federal changes such as tariffs, the shutdown and layoffs affect Virginia, according to Christopher Herrington, an economics professor at Virginia Commonwealth University.

Virginia has an estimated 189,000 federal workers, or about 4.7% of the state workforce, according to the White House. Many federal workers will be furloughed or be required to work without pay during the government shutdown.

“These kinds of things have a snowball effect,” Herrington said. “If consumers are looking forward and they don’t feel confident in their ability to keep earning the same level of income going forward, they start pulling back on consumer spending.”

Imports globally contribute to 11.2% of the U.S. economy, according to Pew Research data. For Virginia, that number is 5.3% and an estimated $41 billion to the economy.

Increased cost of living

Inflation has bumped up the cost of living throughout the U.S., particularly grocery prices, and consumer activity is forecasted to decrease, according to economists.

It has become more expensive in Virginia to eat at home, or away, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics data.

Food prices rose 1.4% over the year, ending in July, with prices for meats, poultry, fish, and eggs up 6.5%. Eating away from home became 2.8% more expensive.

Housing costs also increased by 3.8% in the past year. There was a marginal decline in energy costs.

Economists are concerned that current federal policy like the trade tariffs will have ripple effects on states’ private businesses and economy, according to Herrington.

The more immediate effects of federal policies like the trade tariffs can be seen in the cost of everyday grocery items, Herrington said. Prices on coffee have now skyrocketed 50% due totariffs. Fresh produce from countries like Mexico and Costa Rica is also expected to rise due to tariffs.

There is some uncertainty on how recent fiscal policy will further impact the economy, Herrington said.

“We've seen big changes in the last six months at the federal government level and right now we're in the middle of a shutdown and negotiations, presumably, about what the federal budget is going to look like going forward,” Herrington said.

This could mean more budget cuts and relocation of federal spending from one agency to another, according to Herrington.

Study: Virginia workers need higher salaries

Virginia is one of the top 10 states where the needed salary to live comfortably is highest. An individual needs to earn over $100,000 to live comfortably, according to a study by SmartAssest. A family of four needs to earn over $200,000.

The average salary in 2024 was $72,060, according to statedata.The median annual wage was $53,020. Robin Berkley is a Richmond resident living on a fixed income. She said she is severely impacted by rising food costs and living. Berkley spends over a third more on groceries now compared to previous years.

Jill Morgenstein, a current graduate student and Richmond resident of 13 years, budgets in order to manage the cost of paying for school and other expenses.

“The cost of living has gotten extremely high, and salaries do not keep up,” Morgenstein said.

For Emily Cagle and her family, it is about more than potentially relocating to Northern Virginia because of increased costs. Her economic situation will translate into her vote, because it is an important and pressing issue, she said.

Over a third of Virginia voters rank the economy as their top issues, according to an October Emerson College poll.