Spanberger’s lead narrows as Virginia races tighten in new VCU poll

Democrat Abigail Spanberger holds a 7-point lead over Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears in Virginia’s 2025 governor’s race, according to a new Commonwealth Poll released Tuesday by the L. Douglas Wilder School of Government and Public Affairs at Virginia Commonwealth University.

The survey, conducted Oct. 6-14, shows Spanberger leading Earle-Sears 49% to 42% among registered voters — down from a 9-point margin reported in the school’s September poll conducted in August. Spanberger also holds an 11-point advantage among independent voters, 35% to 24%, though 20% remain undecided.

The poll, which offers a snapshot of voter sentiment heading into the final stretch before the Nov. 4 election, found that all three statewide races have tightened since late summer.

In the lieutenant governor’s contest, Sen. Ghazala Hashmi, D-Richmond, leads Republican nominee John Reid 44% to 43%, a slimmer margin than her 4-point advantage in the previous Commonwealth Poll. 

Meanwhile, Republican Attorney General Jason Miyares now holds a 45% to 42% lead over former Democrat Jay Jones — marking a 9-point net swing since the last survey. 

The new poll was conducted after revelations surfaced of violent text messages sent in 2022 by Jones in which he talked about “two bullets to the head” for a former Republican House speaker and the death of the speaker’s children. The controversy has drawn bipartisan attention and reshaped the AG race. 

“The race for lieutenant governor shows John Reid within 1 percentage point of Ghazala Hashmi (Hashmi 44% to Reid 43%),” said former Gov. L. Douglas Wilder, who founded the VCU school that conducts the poll. 

“The attorney general’s race shows Jason Miyares moving into the lead over Jay Jones (Miyares 45% to Jones 42%). These results highlight that, with several weeks to go before the election, voters are paying attention to what the candidates are doing — and what they have done — as a precursor to what they will do if elected,” Wilder wrote.

Wilder noted that the race for governor remains relatively stable compared to the others but said Democrats’ narrowing advantage underscores the volatility of Virginia’s electorate in statewide races. 

“Our school’s poll results reflect little change in the race for governor, though the lead for Democrats has narrowed (Spanberger 49% to Earle-Sears 42%),” he said.

The survey also asked voters which issues would most influence their decisions in the upcoming election. The rising cost of living topped the list, cited by 27% of respondents — reinforcing economic pressures as the dominant theme of the race.

Immigration ranked second at 14%, followed by women’s reproductive rights at 12%, marking a reversal from the previous poll, when reproductive rights placed ahead of immigration.

The shift suggests that while inflation continues to dominate public concern, debates over border policy and abortion access are also shaping voter motivation in the final weeks of the races. 

The poll also measured voter sentiment on which party should control the House of Delegates, where all 100 seats are up for grabs this fall.

Among registered voters, 47% said they want Democrats to hold a majority, while 44% prefer Republican control. Independent voters remain largely undecided — with 28% favoring a Democratic majority, 23% preferring Republicans and nearly half expressing no opinion.

Those figures mirror the narrow statewide dynamics reflected in the gubernatorial and down-ballot races, where neither party has a commanding lead heading into November.

The poll was conducted via phone interviews with 842 adult Virginians, with a 3.95 percentage point margin of error. 

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