Redistricting might not be solution Virginia voters really need, educators say

Virginia voters have until Tuesday, April 21 to decide if the state will redraw its congressional districts outside the normal census cycle, an effort that has sparked debate and criticism of the overall political structure.

A “yes” vote would allow the General Assembly to redraw Virginia’s congressional districts ahead of the 2026 election, in response to actions taken in other states. Authority would be returned to the Virginia Redistricting Commission in 2031, according to the Virginia Department of Elections.

A “no” vote would keep mapmaking authority with the Virginia Redistricting Commission on its standard 10-year cycle and leave the current map in place.

People who support the effort often call it redistricting. Those in opposition often use term gerrymandering to represent when electoral district boundaries are drawn in a way that creates political advantage for one party. It originates from Gov. Elbridge Gerry of Massachusetts, whose 1812 redistricting plan favored his party.

Officials can gerrymander by “cracking,” which is the spreading of opposing voters across multiple districts to reduce their influence. “Packing,” or concentrating voters into a smaller number of districts, limits representation while strengthening the dominant party’s position elsewhere.

Gerrymandering remains debated due to concerns about its reduced competitiveness, impact on fair representation and equal population sizes across electoral districts.

Millions spent to persuade voters

Campaigns on both sides are spending a lot of money on advertising, according to Stephen Farnsworth, professor of political science at University of Mary Washington.

“What you're seeing is an effort on the part of pro-amendment folks to really tie this to the actions of Texas and President Trump to level the playing field in their words,” Farnsworth said. “Whereas the anti-movement is very focused on pointing out the departure of this proposed constitutional amendment from previous efforts to reduce partisan gerrymandering in Virginia.”

While the “yes” campaigns have a fundraising advantage, allowing them to spend more on television ads, the “no” campaign is focusing more on lower-cost outreach, such as social media and peer-to-peer communication, according to Farnsworth.

Despite the fundraising differences, both campaigns face a shared challenge in turnout and in persuading voters how to vote on the amendment, Farnsworth said. Campaigns should first focus on turning out voters who are less likely to participate before addressing how they might vote once they arrive at the polls, he said.

Elite influence persists outside of maps

Elections are rarely ever free from elite influence, said Mark Rush, professor of politics and law at Washington and Lee University. The combination of single-member districts and a two-party system makes the problem worse.

“When one can totally control the state, you will frequently find the districts to be drawn that favor them,” Rush said.

The political system can still function as long as elections appear free and fair, and checks and balances remain in place, according to Rush. However, deliberate efforts to manipulate the rules undermine that system.

Multi-member districts are one of the many ways to address gerrymandering, Rush said. For example, instead of 100 House districts and 40 Senate districts, there could be a total of 20 districts that nest representatives.

Voters would elect more than one candidate per district, and total votes would be divided by the number of seats to set a winning threshold, Rush said. Similar systems are already used in some U.S. cities and in Europe, he said.

Political control

Alex Keena, associate professor of political science at Virginia Commonwealth University, supports the idea of mixed-member electoral systems. Under that model, voters would elect part of Congress through the current district-based system, while additional seats would be allocated through party-list voting, in which voters choose a political party and seats are distributed proportionally based on each party’s share of the vote, Keena said.

Democrats are expected to win the election this fall, according to Keena. The question is whether adding seats to an already likely majority is worth it.

To create a 10-seat advantage, Republicans would have to be packed into a very large southwestern district, leaving Democrats with majorities in 10 districts, Keena said. If political conditions shift back toward Republicans, Democrats could be defeated under the same map, and their position could quickly reverse within a few years, Keena said.

Although Virginia’s map is supposed to be temporary and reverted in 2030, changes by courts are usually small changes, meaning maps can effectively remain in place for longer than intended, according to Keena.

No district would have a Black majority or plurality, Keena said. He said one could argue the map amounts to a racial gerrymander even though it was drawn by Democrats and includes Black leadership in both legislative chambers, but he does not suggest the changes were intentional.

Fairness in electoral systems

Gerrymandering today includes the creation of majority-minority districts intended to support racial representation in elections, said Marcus Board Jr., associate professor of political science at Howard University. Those districts have increased Black representation in Congress, but a map change may reduce representation and raise the question about what fairness means in elections.

“Do we want descriptive representation of people who are actually just parroting the same ideas of their party or do we want actual ideological diversity,” Board said. “Which will be more than just people voting for somebody who looks like them and more so giving people an opportunity to think about their ideas, be more dynamic and have actual pluralism in America.”

Governing and treating people fairly should be a priority over winning elections, according to Board.

“The big problem in America is that power is determining our capacity to hear a wide range of ideas and to make them viable,” Board said.

People have been conditioned to think about information in certain ways, Board said.

“When you have a system based on equality, the inequality system says that somebody has to give something up so that you can have something,” Board said. “That is one of the biggest flaws in the system we have today because politics is about winning and losing.”

Support for increased Black advocacy

Lauren Burke, owner of Black Virginia News, a pro-democracy newsletter focused on reporting and preserving stories impacting Black communities in Virginia, said more representation is needed.

“What you see is when you do not have the majority of views reflected in policy is you get some very strange results with regard to what money is spent, where it's spent, how it's allocated and everything else,” Burke said.

The current political moment in the United States, including efforts under President Donald Trump that encouraged Republican-led redistricting in states such as Missouri, North Carolina and Texas, helped drive Virginia’s early congressional map redraw, Burke said.

This issue needs more attention because that push has led to a situation in Congress where the numerical majority is not in control, Burke said.

The lesson for Black community advocacy is that more attention needs to be paid to who is drawing district maps and what their priorities are, Burke said.

While there are current Black members of Congress from Virginia, there should be additional representation, Burke said. She emphasized that advocacy groups need to be more engaged during the redistricting process.

This will be a good political lesson on representation and how quickly things can change, Burke said. National narratives matter, but the focus should be on how district maps are drawn, who they are drawn for and who is likely to be elected because of them, since that is where political power is, she said.

Early voting for the measure opened March 6 and ends on Saturday, April 18. Then polls will open at 6 a.m. on Tuesday, April 21 for voters to cast ballots.