Poll: Spanberger extends 10-point lead; Miyares up 8 as Hashmi-Reid contest stays close

With less than a week to go before Election Day, Democrat Abigail Spanberger holds a commanding 10-point lead over Republican Winsome Earle-Sears in Virginia’s race for governor, according to a new Roanoke College poll.

The survey, conducted Oct. 22–27 by the college’s Institute for Policy and Opinion Research (IPOR), found Spanberger ahead 51% to 41% among likely voters — a 3-point increase from the previous poll in August. Just 4% remain undecided and 1% support someone else. The poll of 1,041 likely voters carries a margin of error of 4.05%.

In down-ballot contests, Democratic Sen. Ghazala Hashmi leads Republican John Reid 42% to 40% in the lieutenant governor’s race, while Republican Attorney General Jason Miyares holds an 8-point edge, 46% to 38%, over Democratic challenger Jay Jones.

Enthusiasm and key issues

Two-thirds of likely voters (67%) said they are very enthusiastic about casting a ballot, and another 23% described themselves as somewhat enthusiastic. 

When asked to name the most important issue, 29% cited threats to democracy and 24% listed inflation. Immigration ranked third at 12%, followed by taxes (5%), abortion (5%), and crime (5%).

President Donald Trump’s job approval remains unchanged at 40% since the August Roanoke College Poll. Gov. Glenn Youngkin’s approval holds steady at 50%, but his disapproval rating has dropped seven points.

Spanberger’s favorability rose to 47%, with 42% viewing her unfavorably — both figures higher than in August. Earle-Sears’ ratings also climbed to 38% favorable and 45% unfavorable.

Jones text controversy

The poll found that 80% of likely voters have heard or read about 2022 text messages in which Democratic attorney general nominee  Jones fantasized about shooting then-House Speaker Todd Gilbert, R-Shenandoah.

Among those who said they already voted for Jones, 87% said they would have supported him anyway, while 1% said they would have switched their vote to Miyares. Another 5% said they would not have voted in that race, and 8% declined to answer.

“Like most elections, this one will be determined by voter turnout and how independents vote,” said Harry Wilson, interim director of IPOR and professor emeritus of political science at Roanoke College. 

“While Spanberger appears to have maximized her Democratic support, Earle-Sears could slightly increase her support among Republicans, and she needs to make more inroads with independents with very little time left to do so.”

Wilson added that “the races for lieutenant governor and attorney general are both within the poll’s margin of error, though the latter just barely so. Reid has done well to solidify his partisan support but needs a little help from independents, while Hashmi could do better with her partisans.”

While Jones has “clearly lost some support among Democrats, they have not moved over to support Miyares,” Wilson continued. 

“As concerning for Jones, Miyares now narrowly leads among independents. It may be unprecedented to see such a divergence between the race for governor and attorney general. Everyone who ever contemplates running for public office might consider holding their tongue and stilling their hands on occasion.”

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