New poll: Spanberger takes 10-point lead, makes gains with younger voters in Va. governor’s race

Democratic nominee Abigail Spanberger has opened a double-digit lead over Republican Winsome Earle-Sears in Virginia’s governor’s race, according to a new Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey that shows a dramatic shift among independent, male and younger voters.

Since January, Spanberger’s support climbed from 42% to 52%, while Earle-Sears ticked up just one point, from 41% to 42%, the poll found.

“Spanberger has picked up significant momentum since the first Emerson College poll at the beginning of 2025, driven by increases in support from independents, males and younger voters,” said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling. 

“Independent voters support Spanberger by a 19-point margin; a reversal from January, when they supported Earle-Sears by four points. Notably, the male vote, which traditionally favors the Republican candidate, shifted from a 15-point advantage for Earle-Sears to an even split, with 46% supporting each candidate,” Kimball added.

The Democratic nominee has also consolidated support among younger Virginians. 

“Spanberger’s support also increased among voters under 50: what was once a narrow 41% to 39% edge has grown into a 27-point lead, 59% to 32%,” Kimball said. “Meanwhile, Earle-Sears has not consolidated support among older voters; in January, those 50 and older were evenly divided, 43% for Spanberger and 42% for Earle-Sears. Nine months later, the group remains split with 49% for Earle-Sears and 47% for Spanberger.”

The poll found Spanberger and Earle-Sears’ ballot strength mirrored their overall popularity in the state. Spanberger holds a 51% favorability rating, compared with 42% for Earle-Sears. Thirty-eight percent have an unfavorable view of Spanberger, while 44% view Earle-Sears unfavorably.

Gov. Glenn Youngkin, a Republican who will leave office in January, maintains a 46% approval rating, with 41% disapproving. President Donald Trump, meanwhile, is underwater in Virginia, with 42% approving of his job performance and 54% disapproving.

“While Governor Youngkin maintains a positive approval rating, Lieutenant Governor Earle-Sears does not appear to benefit from it,” Kimball said. “Among voters who approve of the Governor, 11% plan to support Spanberger, while 4% of those who disapprove of the Governor plan to support Earle-Sears.”

The survey also highlighted the issues shaping voters’ decisions. 

The economy tops the list at 35%, followed by threats to democracy at 20%, education at 10%, health care at 9%, housing affordability at 8%, immigration at 6% and crime at 6%.

When asked what issues are “very important” to their vote, 79% cited the economy, 78% education, 71% health care, 66% threats to democracy and 64% housing affordability. Just 27% said transgender issues were very important. Voters who prioritize the economy broke for Spanberger 51% to 44%.

The survey also tested opinions on key policy debates. A large majority — 76% — said they favor eliminating the state’s personal property tax on vehicles, a proposal popular across party lines: 89% of Republicans, 66% of Democrats and 73% of independents back repeal.

On data centers, 42% said they support building more in Virginia, 39% oppose the expansion and 18% are unsure. About two-thirds of voters said they are at least somewhat familiar with the facilities.

The Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey of 725 likely Virginia voters was conducted Sept. 28-29. The poll has a credibility interval, similar to a margin of error, of plus or minus 3.6 percentage points.

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