New poll shows Spanberger with 17-point lead over Earle-Sears

Former congresswoman and Democratic nominee for governor Abigail Spanberger fared better with voters than current lieutenant governor and Republican nominee Winsome Earle-Sears, according to a Roanoke College poll released Thursday showing Spanberger leading Earle-Sears 43%-26%. This follows another poll published this week showing Spanberger with a 4-point lead over Earle-Sears.

The Institute for Policy and Opinion Research at Roanoke College interviewed 658 Virginia residents between May 12 and May 19 to determine that Spanberger leads Earle-Sears by 17 percentage points. Meanwhile, another new poll commissioned by business organization Virginia FREE conducted between May 9 and May 13 shows independent voters favoring Spanberger by 53%-47%. That poll included 1,000 participants. The Roanoke College poll’s margin of error is 5.25%.

While the sample sizes of the polls is much smaller than the number of people who are likely to participate in November’s statewide election, polls conducted sporadically leading up to elections can point to partisan tides. 

The Roanoke College poll also explored key issues that could affect both campaigns such as the national deficit and debt, political anxiety and the job approval of the current president and governor. 

More than half of polled voters, 51%, think “ things in Virginia have gotten off on the wrong track,” while 66% held the same sentiment about the country as a whole. Voters also had mixed feelings about leadership in the state and country, with Gov. Glenn Youngkin’s job approval rating coming in at 46%, which Roanoke College noted as “his lowest and down seven points since November.” President Donald Trump’s job approval rating, 31%, was low but not his lowest.  

Participants also weighed in with their approval and disapproval of Youngkin’s successor. Spanberger rated 41% favorable/40% unfavorable, similar to how polled voters rated her last November, while Earle-Sears’ favorability dropped from her previous rating and stands at 32% favorable/48% unfavorable. About one-fifth of respondents did not offer opinions on either candidates’ favorability.

The voter anxiety index from the Roanoke poll is 89.41, and reflects big shifts in how Virginians in both parties perceive the current state of government. Democratic voters’ anxiety skyrocketed from -10.39 in May 2024 to 101.77 last November, with a current anxiety index of 153.35. Meanwhile, Republican voters’ anxiety index decreased last year, from 166.59 in May to 13.52 in November 2024, and now stands at -30.10. These figures reflect that political anxiety correlates closely with partisan control of the White House and Congress. 

With Virginia’s gubernatorial election falling the year after a presidential election, the past two decades have shown that voters typically elect a governor who is the opposite party of the one who won the White House the year prior. 

On national debt perceptions, a large majority of Virginians, 42%, are very concerned, while 40% said they are somewhat concerned. When it comes to the cause of the national deficit, a majority, 61%, thinks  it is a result of spending too much, while 34% think it’s from not raising enough money through taxes. 

When asked how to address the deficit, 74% of respondents favor raising taxes for people earning more than $400,000 annually, while 82% oppose across-the-board tax raises for everyone. Seventy-one percent of respondents oppose wholesale spending cuts. 

“Six months in a gubernatorial election season is an eternity in politics, but one would prefer to be ahead by 17 points,” said Dr. Harry Wilson, interim director for IPOR and professor emeritus of political science at Roanoke College. 

He added that more than a quarter of Virginians are still undecided voters — which could be good news for both candidates. 

“Spanberger is obviously leading at this point, and she leads among independents, but a large number of Republicans are undecided, and they will most likely end up voting for Earle-Sears,” Wilson said. “The favorable rating for Earle-Sears, however, should be cause for concern.”

This article first appeared on Virginia Mercury and is republished here with permission. Virginia Mercury is part of States Newsroom, a network of news bureaus supported by grants and a coalition of donors as a 501c(3) public charity. Virginia Mercury maintains editorial independence.